Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, June 18th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks reacting to weekend tariff news. The major stock indexes are starting the week well in negative territory, pushing the Dow lower by 228 points and the Nasdaq down 33 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.91%), but we still should see a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

3/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.91%

228


Dow


24,858

33


NASDAQ


7,713

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Positive


Geopolitical/Financial Issues

There is nothing of importance taking place today. We are seeing bonds react favorably to fairly heavy selling in stocks. Stocks are reacting to more trade war speculation as China retaliated against the U.S. latest batch of tariffs on goods from China. The tariffs are believed to be a hurdle for the economy, restricting corporate profits and economic growth. Since stocks are usually pro-economic growth and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we are seeing stocks down and bonds up slightly today.

Medium


Unknown


None

The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates and none of them are considered to be highly important. This should be a much calmer week for mortgage rates than last week was. If we see a big move in mortgage rates, it likely will not be a result of the economic reports but of other factors such as tariff or geopolitical news.

Low


Unknown


Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

May's Housing Starts is the first release of the week at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This report tracks groundbreakings of new home projects, but is not considered to be as important as other housing data. This means it likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. Market analysts are expecting to see an increase in starts of new homes last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a good-sized decline because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day as the most important due to such a light calendar this week. We still should see movement in rates more than one day, although I am not expecting them to make a big move unless something unexpected happens. Even though there is little happening this week, it still would be prudent to watch the markets if still floating an interest rates because the markets can get active without notice.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.